“If we want peace, we must prepare for war”
It was 3:30 in the morning on 24 February 2022 when I was woken by the sound of my phone ringing. Countless intelligence briefings warning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine can never prepare you for the moment. Hearing President Zelenskyy’s grave voice over the phone “bombs are falling on us, it’s a full invasion”, I knew that the entire post World War II security arrangement had changed forever. The EU had to change with it and fast.
Within hours, EU leaders met in Brussels for an extraordinary summit to establish the EU’s response to the invasion. There was no need for words amongst us. Action was what was required. It is a moment in history that each of the EU leaders will remember forever. The decisions taken at this European Council meeting signalled the birth of the geopolitical EU.
The Kremlin miscalculation of an easy 3-day war against Ukraine, underestimating the EU’s collective unity and Ukraine’s determination to defend its territory, shows the delusion at the heart of its leadership. The Kremlin does not care about its people’s welfare, their country’s prosperity, or peace in the region. In contrast, Ukraine and its people have resisted, retaken seized territory, pushed the Russian navy from the Black Sea and inflicted heavy losses on Russian forces.
Two years on from the start of the war, it is now clear that Russia will not stop in Ukraine just as Russia did not stop ten years ago in Crimea. Russia continues its destabilizing tactics — in Moldova, Georgia, the South Caucasus, the Western Balkans and even further afield on the African continent.
Russia is a serious military threat to our European continent and to global security. If we do not get the EU’s response right, and do not give Ukraine enough support to stop Russia, we are next.
We must therefore be defence-ready and shift to a “war economy” mode. It is time to take responsibility for our own security. We can no longer count on others or be at the mercy of election cycles in the US or elsewhere.
We must strengthen our ability— both for Ukraine and for Europe — to defend the democratic world. A stronger Europe will also contribute to a stronger NATO alliance and enhance our collective defense.
While we can be proud of how far we have come, there is still much more that we can and must do.
In a phone call two days after the start of the war, President Zelenskyy pleaded for the EU to send arms. Together with High Representative Borrell we worked with EU leaders to deliver lethal weapons to Ukraine. This was a first in the history of our Union. That weekend already, the first arms were arriving in Ukraine.
Europe’s commitment to Ukraine and its people has been unwavering at every European Council since then.
We have also stepped up on the military front. Europe’s defence industry has increased its production capacity by 50% since the start of the war and we will double European ammunition production to over 2 million shells a year by the end of next year.
Meanwhile across our continent, Kremlin propaganda in Europe attempts to convince our citizens that the war in Ukraine does not concern us, that it is draining our budgets and dividing us. These are blatant lies. We must do more to help Ukraine and to strengthen our European defence. We need to be able to speak not just the language of diplomacy but also the language of power.
Russia will spend a reported 6% of GDP on defence this year, while the EU still spends on average less than the NATO goal of 2% of GDP.
For decades, Europe has not invested enough in our security and defence. Today we face the biggest security challenge since the Second World War, so we must build our defence readiness. This will take a radical and irreversible shift in our thinking, towards a strategic security mindset.
We must prioritise Ukraine and also spend more, smarter and in a less fragmented manner.
Supporting Ukraine
While we beef up our defence capacity, we must ensure Ukraine gets what it needs on the battlefield. Ukrainian soldiers urgently need bullets and missiles and air defense systems to control the skies.
We must use the European budget to buy military equipment for Ukraine and let’s make use of the windfall profits from Russia’s immobilised assets to purchase arms for Ukraine.
Buy more together
We should aim to double what we buy from European industry by 2030. This will give more predictability to our companies. Multiyear contracts will also incentivize them to ramp up their production capacity. This will strengthen our defence industry, enhance defence readiness, and also create jobs, and growth across the EU.
Make access to financing easier
Investments in defence are expensive but without them we cannot increase our defence production. We must facilitate ways for the industry to access both public and private financing more easily. Issuing European defence bonds to raise money to buy material or invest in our industry could also be a powerful means to strengthen our technological, innovation and industrial base.
We must also consider expanding the European Investment Bank’s mandate and adapt the lending policy to allow us to do more to support our European defence industry, i.e. by changing the definition of dual-use goods.
EU leaders are convening once again in Brussels two years after that pivotal European Council meeting. At this crucial moment i
n global history, Europe must be defence ready and match the urgency of the threat. This fight requires strong leadership — to rally our people, businesses, and governments toward a new spirit of security and defence across our European continent.
If we want peace, we must prepare for war.