Sunday’s vote in Serbia was about far more than filling 250 parliamentary seats. With a turnout above 67 % of some 6.5 million registered voters, the highest since the breakup of the former Yugoslavia, Serbians essentially put a decade-long political model on trial and gave their verdict.
Of 18 lists only two mattered: Aleksander Vučić, who gave up the presidency to run for prime minister, and the Students List headed by Ilija Srdanović, a cardiologist from Novi Sad. With Student List winning around 53 % against 38.8 % for Vučić’s SNS list, the verdict was clear and decisive. No other opposition list cleared the threshold, leaving parliament almost entirely to the two main blocs.
The result left no room for hesitation. The President of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, was quick to congratulate the winners, her warmest words for the Serbian students in two years, and was swiftly followed by Marta Kos, the Enlargement Commissioner and Antonio Costa, the European Council President.
This warmth came late, but it opens a door. Serbia is a candidate country and that gives Brussels both the right and the responsibility to insist on democratic standards, especially considering its renewed approach towards enlargement. On this, the students’ priorities overlap with the EU’s more than either side would care to admit, but this makes them natural allies.
‘Serbia or the Mafia’
It all began in November 2024, when the canopy of Novi Sad railway station collapsed and killed 16 people. Since then, students have continuously taken to the streets against Alexander Vučić’s long rule, initially demanding accountability for corruption in public construction. Government refusals to release relevant documents triggered a cross-generational movement demanding new elections.
Sceptics wrote the movement off as directionless and leaderless. Yet by mid-2025, a list selected by students but with no students on it was ready, comprised of academics, doctors, artists and other apolitical figures, whose names were only released after the election was called. Student List essentially shut the door on political parties and refused to crown a leader.
With an 11-point programme centered on the rule of law, anti-corruption and democracy, they reached towns no campaign had bothered with since the fall of Slobodan Milosevic. ‘Serbia or the Mafia,’ the title of the programme’s opening chapter, quickly became the campaign’s rallying cry.
Vučić cast himself as the guarantor of stability and accused the students of being agents of chaos. As expected, Vučić set the entire state’s machinery in motion behind his bid. CRTA, Serbia’s leading election watchdog, found that more than 650 of some 1 500 campaign appearances by public officials bore signs of misuse of office and public resources. While paying cash to pensioners and adults, Vučić resembled Santa Claus who had arrived two months early – with the state budget as his sack.
But it went beyond handouts. In September, UN experts expressed concern over the recurrent use of spyware against students and opposition figures. Pro-government media joined the witch hunt. No opposition actor got more airtime than the Student List, yet 86 % of that coverage painted them in a negative light, portraying them as the tools of foreign interests.
Alas, foreign backing was only a problem when it concerned the other side. When Vladimir Putin said he hoped to see Vučić as Serbia’s next prime minister, Vučić could barely hide his delight. Hardly a first, though – the Kremlin has blessed almost every SNS campaign since 2012.
Brussels, for its part, knew exactly what was happening. Kos’s cancelled visit over Ratko Mladić’s funeral and von der Leyen’s decision to skip Belgrade on her recent regional tour sent an indirect message.
Yet the EU’s reaction to pre-election irregularities and the uneven campaign was criticised as disproportional to the evidence civil society had handed it well before the vote. Now that the ballots are counted, it’s crucial that the EU emerges as a principled external actor.
It’s the EU’s move to make
The EU was barely featured in the Student List campaign. Little wonder, when Brussels never explicitly took their side. A victory won without the EU’s help wouldn’t necessarily put the accession process as a top priority. Yet Brussels helping to deliver the students’ promises would automatically advance Serbia’s path towards the EU.
But first the EU has some ground to make up. Kos struck a firm tone before the vote, declaring EU values as ‘non-negotiable’, and a warm one after, telling Serbia that ‘the door to the EU is open.’ But winning back credibility will take more than hearty congratulations. It’ll require sustained outreach by the EU and Member States to the winning Student list and other pro-democratic actors.
Investigating every irregularity recorded by international and local observers is the right place to start. While the ruling party has accepted defeat, a peaceful transfer of power needs to be guaranteed, given the institutional obstacles built up due to 14 years of Vučić.
Serbians also need to regain trust in their own institutions. An independent expert mission, modelled on the Priebe reports that the EU first commissioned for North Macedonia in 2015, would give the new majority a clear roadmap and concrete EU backing under Chapters 23 and 24, which tackle systemic rule of law issues, from the judiciary to media freedom. Real progress here would allow Brussels to release the Growth Plan funds it has held back, so that reform at home pays off in Europe.
On Serbia’s foreign policy, the EU shouldn’t expect a U-turn overnight. The diverse student coalition played it safe on divisive issues. Their Memorandum on Kosovo stayed firmly within the constitutional mainstream and they opposed sanctions on Russia. This sets the stage for a difficult conversation with Brussels, which expects Serbia to align with its foreign policy, including normalising relations with Kosovo. A gradual EU approach would avoid alienating a majority that feels it owes Brussels little, but it shouldn’t be mistaken for flexibility on the substance. Fresh from his party’s win in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, on the other hand, has lost the patron who long encouraged and shielded his secessionist ambitions. The EU should watch to ensure that he doesn’t find a new patron to replace Vučić in Belgrade.
Finally, others in the Western Balkans are watching to see if Brussels stands by its values when it really matters. Serbia’s example shows that engaging only with the government isn’t enough – societies matter too. Enlargement’s credibility depends on getting that balance right.
About the author:
Antigona Imeri is a Project Officer at CEPS, where she works mainly on projects under Horizon Europe. Her responsibilities include project management with a strong focus on financial oversight, reporting and compliance. With her advanced expertise in Salesforce, at CEPS she also designs and implements solutions for project management workflows, events, and membership management.