The official accounts of the meeting between Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders on August 18th portrayed an attractive fantasy. The latest meeting of the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ (a group of mostly European countries supporting Ukraine) reflects the same illusions. Europeans need to face up to four key facts:
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- Trump favours Putin over Zelenskyy. The US is now doing relatively little to help Ukraine.
- The Russians will not agree to Ukraine having any effective protection against future attacks. The security guarantee for Ukraine allegedly accepted by Putin in his meeting with Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff is a mirage, and the US is reluctant to provide an insurance policy for European forces in Ukraine.
- Putin remains determined to win, not compromise. His peace terms would reduce Ukraine to vassal status.
- Trump has so far not been willing to put pressure on Putin by imposing further sanctions. Instead, he is offering Putin incentives to make any kind of deal that can be portrayed as peace.
Most European leaders have not begun to explain to their populations what is at stake if Ukraine is defeated. They are probably going to need to deploy forces in Ukraine, or at least in the air over it, without waiting for a ceasefire, if they are to prevent Russia making further advances. They need to pursue two challenging objectives:
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- Stabilising the front and ideally pushing Russia back. Ukraine needs help to stop Russia’s advance and make current Russian positions untenable. Europe should help Ukraine capitalise on its campaign of hitting critical targets in the Russian rear, including oil refineries.
- Providing credible, effective and sustainable security guarantees. Ukraine will not be safe as long as Russian leaders see Ukraine as an artificial creation of Russia’s enemies. The country will need effective security guarantees. The Coalition of the Willing should aim to form an alliance with Ukraine to provide mutual defence in the face of a growing Russian threat to Europe. Ukrainian forces would be at the heart of the new alliance, with France and the UK providing a nuclear deterrent.
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If they can achieve those two objectives, they will then need to fund Ukraine’s economic recovery, including with Russia’s frozen central bank assets. And they will need to accelerate Ukraine’s EU accession, or at least give it access to some benefits of membership even before accession. Like many other Central and Eastern European countries, Ukraine is more likely to be a success story inside the EU than out of it.
European leaders will keep supporting Trump’s dialogue with Putin and try to avoid annoying him, knowing the harm he could cause Ukraine if he chose to. But it is a fantasy to think that Trump can deliver peace on acceptable terms or that Putin will stop fighting unless forced to. If European leaders do not want to confront Russian forces on NATO territory, they will have to do so in Ukraine, even without US backing.
About the author:
Ian Bond has been the deputy director of the Centre for European Reform since November 2023. He joined the CER as foreign policy director in April 2013. Prior to that, he was a member of the British diplomatic service for 28 years.