Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was a pivotal moment for European and global security. The invasion triggered strong Western sanctions on Russia. The West also provided Kyiv with extensive support in the form of military equipment, financial assistance and military training. Spurred by their own unpreparedness for large-scale conflict, Europeans have taken some steps to buttress their defences and many countries have announced large increases in defence spending. However, European countries have now used up much of their pre-existing stocks of weapons and ammunition, and they are struggling to produce enough to supply Ukraine with what it needs to defend itself. As Russia rapidly scales up its own military production, it may gain the upper hand, removing any incentives for Putin to negotiate. If Russia prevails, an emboldened Putin may be tempted to capitalise on Russia’s strengthened military to test NATO’s defences in the Baltics, potentially leading to a catastrophic conflict.
The EU’s policies in the defence industrial field will have a tangible impact on whether Europeans can help Ukraine and reinforce their own ability to deter aggression. Since 2017 the EU has made significant strides in the defence industrial field, developing a set of tools to encourage member-states to develop and procure military equipment jointly, and to foster more interoperability between European military forces. The EU’s involvement in defence procurement has deepened after Russia’s invasion, and the Union has also emerged as a significant actor in providing Ukraine with military assistance and training.
This policy brief assesses the prospects for increased EU involvement in defence industrial matters, and the obstacles in the way of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s ambition to establish a ‘European defence union’. Ultimately, the future of EU involvement in defence depends on whether member-states will put serious funding and political capital behind EU defence efforts, or whether they will prefer to maintain the status quo.
Read the full policy brief at the original link.
About the author
Luigi Scazzieri is a Senior research fellow at CER.