EU policies, including enlargement, received scant attention in the run-up to the October 29 elections in the Netherlands. Yet, the next Dutch government might be a key factor in Montenegro’s and Albania’s bids to join the EU. Difficult coalition talks will determine whether the Dutch position will be critical but constructive, or outright sceptical. Based on preliminary election results, this blog takes a look at possible coalitions and their stances, as well as at public perceptions and attitudes.
With a relatively high voter turnout of over 78 percent, the Dutch electorate set the course for what is bound to be another round of difficult coalition talks in The Hague – a process that could take months. As there is no electoral threshold, up to 15 parties are expected to be represented in the next parliament. In a surprising twist, the social-liberal D66 matched Geert Wilder’s notorious right-wing populist Freedom Party (PVV), both likely gaining 26 seats, with the final winner only to become clear when all votes have been counted. Three other parties followed suit with 18 to 22 seats each. These parties, as well as D66, have excluded collaborating with Wilders’ party after their exit from the last government. The most likely scenario now is either a centre-left government where D66, CDA (Christian Democrats) and VVD (Conservative Liberals) join forces with the GL-PvdA (Social-Democrats/ Greens), or a centre-right government comprising, in addition to D66, CDA and VVD, the more radical right JA21, the farmers party BBB, and/or smaller Christian parties. Given the election outcome, negotiations for any coalition could take several months. What could these preliminary election outcomes tell us about the future Dutch stance towards EU-enlargement?
About the authur:
Wouter Zweers is a research fellow at Clingendael’s EU & Global Affairs Unit.