In short
- Europe’s future relevance in Africa and the Middle East will depend less on normative rhetoric and more on credible enforcement capacity to enable pragmatic partnerships
- The EU must honestly confront and navigate the trade-offs between its geo-economic interests and its normative commitments
- Partners in Africa and the Middle East hedge and multi-align rationally; the EU should treat autonomy as normal and tailor its offers accordingly
- If the EU backs soft power with enforcement, political honesty, and respect for partners’ agency, it can become a non-imperial strategic partner in its southern neighbourhood
Europe is on edge. The so-named rupture of the world order has both sharpened doubts about the reliability of the transatlantic partnership and further exposed the risks embedded within it. Yet, while pundits are occupied with the unravelling of Europe’s alliance with the United States (US), that partnership’s fraying underscores a different, longer-term concern: How the European Union (EU) and its member states are perceived by those beyond the “West”; that is, by its strategic partners of the next era?
Africa and the Middle East are integral to Europe’s future geopolitical, geo-economic, and security interests; from trade routes, migration and labour dynamics, to energy transitions and containing illicit trafficking and regional conflict spillovers. Across the arc to its south, a blocked canal, a politicized border, emboldened extremists or a suspended constitution can mean disrupted supply chains, higher prices and migration surges at home. And the current European stance, characterised by norm promotion and overreliance on an increasingly disruptive US, is strategically untenable.
To become a more independent and credible strategic actor among its southern neighbours, the EU will need to invest more seriously in a clear narrative of what it has to offer, as well as in its understanding of the political landscapes, interests, and leverage points of these partners, with whom its own future stability is ever more entwined. This requires not only rhetoric but a more prioritized regional policy that aligns EU objectives with partners’ political and economic realities. Mismanaging these relationships leaves Europe reacting to – rather than shaping – events in its own strategic hemisphere.