Opinion & Analysis

Germany’s gambit: Turkey and the refugee crisis , by J. Janning

Angela Merkel may be the last politician standing in favour of a European response to the refugee crisis. At this stage she has no choice but to stick to her policy because a change in Germany’s approach would have massive consequences for the EU. If Berlin were to announce a limit to the number of arrivals (as the Austrian government did), or close the borders to migrants (as Sweden did), Schengen would not survive one week. Like in Sweden or in Austria, the German government has to bring down the number of arrivals in 2016. Merkel might not be able to survive another year if immigration continues at 2015 levels. Unlike most other European countries, Germany has to decrease the number of arrivals through a European scheme, even if Berlin is the only actor following this approach.

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