Alfonso Medinilla, Koen Dekeyser and Poorva Karkare highlight the findings of a multi-year research programme on the green industrialisation pathways of African economies within the evolving trade and geo-economic landscape, examining their connections to regional integration, international finance and global decarbonisation.
African countries seek to industrialise to drive growth, create jobs and strengthen value chains. If they can do so while gaining ground in the global green industrial race, all the better.
A new wave of African green industrial policies is emerging, with a continental call for climate positive growth and initiatives like the African Green Industrialisation Initiative (AGII) spearheaded by Kenya. African experts are calling for a green – and digital – industrial revolution to future-proof African economies and unlock the potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
These initiatives seek to leverage African renewable energy and mineral assets not just for raw exports, but to break the commodity dependence and kickstart wider industrialisation by producing green goods and strengthening their position in clean technology value chains like EV batteries, iron and steel, fertilisers and renewable energy manufacturing. However, major challenges remain, including the risk of a green resource curse and unequal access to finance for both energy and industrial projects, which deepen production-based inequities.
All this is also unfolding in a highly volatile and competitive global environment. With the US acting as an agent of economic disruption, the EU – Africa’s largest trading partner – is looking to contain its dependence on the United States, while derisking supply chains from China, to maintain competitiveness of its industry and avoid deindustrialisation in Europe.
African countries do not want to get caught in the West-China rivalry, as both are crucial partners – China as Africa’s top trading partner and the EU as a key investor. This raises questions about their ability to turn geopolitical competition to their advantage.
African green industrialisation ambitions are caught between big powers’ priorities
Africa and the EU have distinct interests in green industries, which creates opportunities for cooperation. Europe’s energy security and industrial competitiveness depend on decarbonisation and secure partnerships for green tech, while Africa’s industrialisation relies on both regional and global markets and requires a fundamental shift in international finance for green energy and industry.
As part of a multi-year research programme, we explored the green industrialisation pathways of African economies within the evolving trade and geo-economic landscape, examining their connections to regional integration, international finance and global decarbonisation. This page highlights the findings from this research. We will continue delving further into these topics, so keep watching this space.
About the Authors
Alfonso Medinilla is the head of ECDPM’s climate action and green transition team. He focuses on the geopolitics of the global green transition and renewable energy.
Koen Dekeyser is a policy analyst in ECDPM’s sustainable food systems and climate action and green transition teams.
Poorva Karkare is a senior policy analyst at ECDPM working on issues of industrialisation and regional integration in Africa with a political economy lens.