To reduce its dependency on Russia, Armenia is diversifying its foreign policy. Until peace with Azerbaijan is secured, Europeans need to provide Yerevan with extra support.
Armenia’s recently re-elected prime minister has a big task ahead: pivot his country away from Russia and towards Europe. Last month, he began preparing Armenia for its EU membership bid. The government is also pursuing a new peace initiative with old adversaries, Azerbaijan and Turkey. But it will take Nikol Pashinyan a lot more to secure a westward turn.
Yerevan’s European aspirations have not been well received by Moscow, which has restricted Armenian exports, paused its gas flows and threatened to tighten conditions for Armenians working in Russia. Leaving little to the imagination, President Vladimir Putin has gone so far as to say that Armenia could face a “Ukrainian scenario” if it continues down this path.
The frail peace process with Azerbaijan is making Armenia particularly vulnerable. Baku has made the signing of the peace treaty conditional on Armenia changing its constitution to recognise current borders. Yet Pashinyan does not have the parliamentary majority for such a change. As long as the peace treaty is unratified, Russia can exploit Armenia’s fragility.
About the Author:
Maria Simeonova: Head of Sofia office, policy fellow, ECFR