Only one thing is certain about the outcome of France’s presidential election next year: Macron’s decade in power will come to an end. Who replaces him is an open question, with any number of thinkable outcomes. But plausible among these is that, by May 2027, a candidate from the far-right National Rally (RN) will hold all the power the mighty French presidency commands.
Polls from May 2026 indicate that over one-third of French voters may be ready to vote for such a candidate in the first round, far ahead of anyone else, and that an RN candidate would also compete strongly in the second round. That candidate may be the RN’s long-time leader Marine Le Pen, who since taking over from her father in 2011 has become the grande dame of the French far right; it may be the party’s president Jordan Bardella, who will likely run in Le Pen’s stead if her appeal to overturn an embezzlement conviction fails.
This paper imagines what French foreign policy might look like in the first year of an RN presidency, if the candidate is Bardella. We chose him over Le Pen as the putative president in this universe as his candidacy would be more likely to expose important debates within the RN that the party tends to keep under wraps. And for the rest of Europe to prepare for either a President Bardella or a President Le Pen, these inner workings need to be out in the open. Just as Viktor Orban was in Hungary and Giorgia Meloni is in Italy, Bardella is a product of the unique history and dynamics of his party and his country’s politics; the impact of his presidency in Europe would thus be incomparable to theirs or any points of reference that came before him.
The paper begins by examining the worldview and the debates that would shape a Bardella presidency. The six chapters that follow analyse the ways these might manifest themselves in the year following his election. Each chapter then illustrates the observations with a continuation of the scenario to help readers think themselves into the hypothetical outcome.
The scenario is entirely fictional and makes no predictions. But we built the story it tells on the realities of the RN as the party prepares for next year’s election. It is based on in-depth interviews with an array of senior RN figures and external experts as well as analysis of the party’s speeches, legislative proposals, voting records and electoral programmes. The paper closes by building on this to explain how the rest of Europe might begin to brace for the prospect of a very different France at the heart of the EU.
About the authors
Dr Célia Belin is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and head of its Paris office since January 2023.
Jeremy Cliffe is editorial director and senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Camille Lons is a policy fellow and deputy head of the Paris office at the European Council on Foreign Relations, where she works on geoeconomics and relations between China and the Gulf countries.
Constance Victor is the Paris office coordinator at the European Council on Foreign Relations.