Lebanon is descending into chaos. Three weeks of Israeli strikes targeting Hizbullah have killed at least 1,209 people and displaced more than one million. On March 16th, Israel launched “limited ground operations” in the south amid reports that a full invasion aimed at seizing territory up to the Litani river may follow. There are fears that Israeli pressure could also precipitate internal conflict between competing Lebanese groups.
Israel dramatically escalated its campaign after Hizbullah fired rockets and drones into Israel in response to the US-Israel killing of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on March 1st. Until then, the group had largely held its fire despite Israel’s continued violations, numbering in the thousands, of the November 2024 ceasefire.
People in Lebanon increasingly feel that nowhere is safe: Israelis strikes appear unconstrained, hitting civilians, humanitarian workers, state infrastructure and UNIFIL peacekeepers, which include European troops. Fleeing within the region is becoming less viable as even Arab Gulf states once seen as safe havens are now exposed. For many displaced people, Europe may increasingly become an option, stoking fears of a new refugee wave.
While Europeans and regional actors are rushing emergency humanitarian aid to Lebanon, the issue also requires political investment to address the underlying causes of instability—especially as the US appears to disengage while backing Israel’s offensive. France is virtually the only European actor pressing for diplomacy. Paris has reportedly drafted a proposal in which Lebanon would take the unprecedented step of recognising Israel in exchange for the establishment of a Lebanese Armed Forces presence south of the Litani, Israeli withdrawal and an internationally monitored disarmament of Hizbullah.
Europeans need to strongly back the French effort in support of new diplomacy, even if a full recognition of Israel will need to entail wider mutual steps. Germany and Italy, given their support to UNIFIL and good relations with the Trump administration and Israel, are well placed help unlock some key hurdles to negotiations. They should press all parties and their backers to engage in meaningful diplomacy geared towards ending the fight and restoring the legitimacy and defence capability of the Lebanese state.
Pressing Israel
As Israel’s largest trading partner, the EU has significant leverage. Previously, Germany and Italy have blocked using it in response to Israel’s actions in Gaza. The threat of a new refugee wave towards Europe could push them to take a firmer stance to at least contain the situation in Lebanon.
The immediate priority should be coordinated pressure on Israel to avoid a ground offensive and ensure the protection of civilians and humanitarian workers. This message was reflected in a March 16th joint statement by the UK, France, Germany and Italy, along with Canada, and should have been more strongly conveyed by German foreign minister Johann Wadephul in his recent visit to Israel. Europeans should also demand that Israel refrain from targeting key infrastructure.
Supporting Lebanese security
Europeans should also increase immediate support for the Lebanese Armed Forces. France’s aid package includes such assistance, but a planned donor conference has now been postponed because of the latest escalation. Strengthening the Lebanese military is essential for the disarmament of Hizbullah, restoring central government authority in the south and along the Israeli border, and maintaining stability amid both Israeli aggression and the upcoming end of the UNIFIL mission.
Israel’s campaign is also unfolding amid deepening internal tensions. The government’s ban on Hizbullah’s military activities following its attacks on Israel risks triggering internal conflict. For that reason, Rodolph Haykal, the Lebanese army chief, has clearly indicated reluctance to deploy forces against the group during Israel’s offensive (which itself reinforces Hizbullah’s resistance narrative).
Europeans should combine these security efforts with a commitment to contribute troops to a successor force for UNIFIL when its mandate expires at the end of this year. Europe should refrain from scaling back support during the current conflict, as seen in Germany’s decision to proceed with withdrawing its UNIFIL troops despite the clear need for continued peacekeeping.
Using the Med pact
In the longer term, Europeans need to address the structural drivers of Lebanon’s instability, of which Hizbullah is only one (albeit important) element.
The current EU approach to Lebanon centres on a 2024 aid package that overwhelmingly focuses on border management and return assistance of Syrian refugees. But European interests in Lebanon go well beyond that. The reconvening of the ninth EU–Lebanon Association Council in December 2025, along with the upcoming launch of the EU Pact for the Mediterranean’s Action Plan at the end of March, offer an opportunity to rethink the relationship.
Together with security and migration management, the EU should use the pact to widen cooperation and make a greater push for much-needed governance and economic reforms. Initial optimism following measures such as lifting bank secrecy has already faded, but these reforms remain crucial to prevent state collapse and stabilise the economy, thereby reducing incentives for emigration.
Reconstruction
Europeans should also support Lebanese people’s trust in a functioning government by promoting resilience and reconstruction, especially in the heavily bombed south. This would help strengthen the Lebanese state’s ability to meet citizens’ needs, rebuilding legitimacy in contrast to Hizbullah.
Cyprus, which holds the EU presidency, should lead efforts to assemble a new substantial EU package to Lebanon. This should also include help for Lebanon’s overstretched health sector.
Lebanon is too important for European security, economic and migration interests to be neglected at such a perilous moment. What happens there will reverberate across the region. Europeans have the leverage to steer the country away from conflict. But only a strategic, long-term vision centred on Lebanese society can pull the country back from the brink.
About the Author:
Kelly Petillo is the programme manager for Middle East and North Africa at the European Council on Foreign Relations, focusing on refugee, humanitarian and human rights issues.