In short
- Hungary’s parliamentary elections on 12 April are high-stakes, with a real possibility that Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule could come to an end
- A victory for challenger Péter Magyar could open momentum for reforms, strengthening rule of law and improving Hungary’s strained EU relations
- Yet, EU leaders would be wise to temper expectations: deep reforms will be difficult after years of single-party dominance and institutional entrenchment
- Regardless of the outcome, the EU must rethink how it deals with Member States that challenge European unity and democratic norms
Will Viktor Orbán’s reign soon come to an end after 16 years of holding power? This has become a possibility now that he has been trailing in the polls for quite some time.
The EU is holding its breath, as its enfant terrible – under whose rule Hungary has backslid into an electoral autocracy – is posing an ever-greater threat to European security due to his friendship with Vladimir Putin. Only a landslide victory would give his opponent Péter Magyar a chance of seizing power. Magyar may not be the pro-EU and pro-Ukraine reformist that most people in Brussels are hoping for, but he is Hungary’s and the EU’s only chance for change.
What is at stake?
The Hungarian parliamentary elections on Sunday 12 April are already coined as Europe’s most important elections this year. The stakes are incredibly high. For the first time in a long while, Hungarians sense an opening for change. It may well be the country’s only chance to reform its corruption-ridden economy, to restore the rule of law, and to mend its strained relationship with the EU – a relationship under increasing pressure due to Hungary’s reluctance to support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression. It might also be the country’s only chance to reclaim the billions of euros that the EU has been withholding since 2022 due to ongoing issues related to corruption and the politicization of the judiciary. Viktor Orbán’s opponent, Péter Magyar, has made it his priority to get Hungary back on track. Yet this could prove difficult given Fidesz’ control over democratic oversight bodies (such as the judiciary and the media) and the country’s heavy dependence on Russian energy. How are both candidates faring in the polls, what campaigns are they running, and what do various outcomes mean for the EU and for Ukraine?
About the authors:
Saskia Hollander is a Senior Research Fellow at the EU & Global Affairs Unit at Clingendael.
Julia Soldatiuk-Westerveld is a Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute’s EU & Global Affairs Unit.