After threatening catastrophic escalation, Trump has agreed to a temporary ceasefire with Iran. Europeans need to use this moment to urgently push for a more lasting peace.
US president Donald Trump has stepped back from the brink. After five weeks of conflict with Iran, the US has accepted a Pakistani proposal for a two-week ceasefire tied to Iran re-opening the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump pointing to an Iranian 10-point plan as a “workable basis on which to negotiate”. The ceasefire comes as a desperately needed off-ramp: the conflict has already had devastating consequences—with acute implications for European economic and security interests—and Trump’s threats to wipe out a “whole civilisation” had raised fears of far worse.
With Israel and Iran continuing attacks after the ceasefire was announced, there should be no illusions about its frailty. The deal does not meaningfully address the core dynamics underpinning the conflict—including US opposition to Iran’s nuclear programme and Tehran’s desire for economic and security guarantees—and if both sides stick to their maximalist demands negotiations could quickly collapse.
A relapse into a wider war could also come from Israel. Its government likely opposes the deal given that the Iranian regime remains standing and maintains access to its enriched uranium stockpile and still-effective missile capabilities. Moreover, the Israeli government says the agreement does not apply in Lebanon and continues to launch intense attacks on Hizbullah and the wider country, which could provoke Iranian reprisals.
The ceasefire also risks cementing Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran saying ships will need to pay a toll and coordinate passage with its armed forces.
From pause to peace
European governments need to focus their immediate efforts on sustaining the ceasefire. This means supporting Pakistani-led efforts to secure a broader deal to underpin a permanent end to the war. This track will need to meaningfully address both American concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme and Tehran’s need for security guarantees and real economic relief. The latter will also be key to ensuring that Tehran does not leverage its ongoing control over Hormuz for revenue-extraction. Europeans should work closely with mediating states and key Gulf actors to press both Tehran and Washington to build on negotiations immediately prior to the conflict—which showed signs of a possible deal—to move towards a compromise.
As part of this effort, Europeans should work to incentivise the broader deal. To encourage Trump, who will be focused on the war’s economic fallout, European countries should quickly consider deploying a European or multinational naval mission in the Strait of Hormuz. This will help lock in the immediate ceasefire gains and restore necessary trust for commercial passage. It will also require close coordination with all Gulf actors, including Iran.
This effort could also include offering Iran an economic “day after” package, such as support rebuilding energy infrastructure. In doing this, Europeans need to maintain a strong focus on channelling support that meets the needs of the Iranian people, whose country has been devastated and who now face an even more hard-line regime. This should include funding humanitarian aid.
Finally, European governments need to urgently press Israel to end its offensive in Lebanon and refrain from actions that could reignite conflict with Iran. Prospects for a ceasefire in Lebanon could be further bolstered by greater European support to the Lebanese government and armed forces—which are key domestic actors needed to disarm Hizbullah—and a European willingness to maintain a security role in the south of the country.
Far from done
Further US-Iranian negotiations are to be held in Islamabad later this week. Iranian demands according to the 10-point plan include a permanent end to the conflict, a right to enrichment, the lifting of all sanctions, a right to toll ships using the Strait of Hormuz, and the withdrawal of US combat forces from bases in the Middle East. The US is unlikely to accept these terms.