Summary
- Trump’s attacks on India have prompted New Delhi to reassess its diplomatic strategy, leading to more hedging and an emphasis on what it calls “multi-alignment”.
- Tensions with the US will push India to pursue fence-mending measures with Beijing, but the underlying competitive dynamics in China-India relations are unlikely to change.
- It would be a serious mistake for India’s growing tensions with the US to push it to abandon Western ties completely; Europe offers a promising alternative to balance risks without the same geopolitical constraints as the US or Russia.
- Europe’s shift toward a more geopolitically serious and defence-oriented stance has positioned it as a more credible partner in India’s eyes, capable of delivering tangible security benefits and a broader range of technological cooperation.
- While Europeans remain concerned about India’s longstanding partnership with Russia, New Delhi has largely acknowledged that Russia’s strategic value is limited.
About the Author
James Crabtree is a distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Crabtree is a geopolitical analyst and author, with extensive experience living and working in Asia. His book The Billionaire Raj: A Journey Through India’s New Gilded Age, was named an Amazon book of the year and short-listed as a Financial Times & McKinsey business book of the year. Prior to joining ECFR, he was the Singapore-based executive director of the Institute of International Strategic Studies in Asia, where he led the organisation of the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit, and an associate professor in practice at the Lee Kuan Yew School, Asia’s leading school of public policy.