Net migration surged to a height of 900,000 in the summer of 2023, before falling to around half that level by the end of last year, as white-hot labour demand was cooled by higher interest rates and vacancies fell, and after Rishi Sunak’s government tightened migration rules. Labour has decided to go further: in May 2025, the Starmer government set out plans for stronger immigration controls.
The proposals include maintaining the Sunak government’s higher salary threshold for jobs eligible for skilled worker visas to £38,700, and raising the minimum skill level from qualifications equivalent to an A-level to a degree or equivalent. To get indefinite leave to remain in the country, immigrants will have to live and work for ten years, up from five currently. Some occupations may be put on a ‘temporary shortage list’ if the Migration Advisory Committee, an independent body that advises the government on immigration policy, recommends an exemption and the industry involved demonstrates to the government that it is making efforts to recruit domestically and to train potential workers.
This move has implications for the government’s other ‘missions’, such as raising growth, fixing the NHS, building 1.5 million new homes by the end of the parliament in 2029, and keeping on track for net zero by 2050. This policy brief focuses on the last of these missions, and uses data on immigration and green jobs to ask three questions:
- Did the previous immigration regimes – free movement and the visa system for non-EU nationals before 2021, and the relatively liberal regime that replaced it – provide enough green workers?
- Which green occupations will fail to meet the government’s new salary and skills thresholds?
- What are the immigration policy options if the new rules undermine the net zero mission?
The brief provides a new analysis of the extent to which foreign-born workers have been employed in occupations that are important to the environment and the energy transition, as the electricity system is decarbonised and heating and transport shift from fossil fuels to electricity. It shows which green occupations will not be eligible for visas under the government’s new immigration rules, and considers which jobs will be difficult to incentivise domestic workers to do. It concludes with the immigration policy options to ensure Britain’s energy transition gets the workers that it needs.
About the Author
John Springford is an associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform.