Are the EU, NATO, and the Netherlands prepared?
This report has examined how the Netherlands, the EU and NATO can enhance their security approach to address potential security developments in the Western Balkans in the period up until the end of 2029. Therefore, it has first assessed the current security and stability situation in the Western Balkans, displaying current threats to territorial, physical, economic, ecological, social and political, and international (legal) security and stability.
Especially the lack of normalisation between Serbia and Kosovo and persisting secessionist agendas and a lack of reconciliation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as a manifestation of ethnic tensions and organised crime have in the last few years threatened physical and territorial security in the region. The report also highlights continued weaknesses in the democratic governance of the Western Balkan countries, which also negatively impact economic stability and bring about migrationrelated security challenges. The region’s ecological security is mainly threatened by (climate change-)induced natural disasters, environmental pollution, as well as insufficient energy security. Lastly, stability is undermined by external actors such as especially Russia, but also by the effects of the war in Ukraine, heightened global geopolitical tensions, global pressure on democracy and uncertainty surrounding transatlantic cooperation.
Subsequently, the report has presented (the synopses of) four scenarios that showcase fictional but potential security developments in the Balkan region over the next five years. Two of those scenarios foresee a violent escalation, respectively in Bosnia and Herzegovina and in North Kosovo. The other two scenarios see, respectively, a relatively successful EU integration path marked by external security challenges, and a muddle-through scenario with an intensification of several already persistent security challenges.
About the Author
Wouter Zweers is a research fellow at Clingendael’s EU & Global Affairs Unit.