Volodymyr Zelensky has struck a deal to strengthen Ukraine’s winter energy reserves. Europe should now help Kyiv diversify its imports and guard its domestic gas fields with a robust air defence.
Problem
Ukrainians are facing the prospect of a cold and dark winter. Continuous Russian attacks on their energy infrastructure have taken out roughly 55% of the country’s domestic gas production, forcing Kyiv to withdraw from its strategic storage and seek new imports via European Union countries such as Greece and Poland. These come in the form of liquified natural gas (LNG) supplies from third countries, which enter the EU and are later re-exported via pipelines to Ukraine.
While this diversification strategy allows Ukraine to continue resisting Russian aggression, it presents two sets of problem that Europeans must address for Kyiv to maintain sufficient energy supplies.
First, supply diversification helps giving Ukraine strategic depth, but some providers are not entirely reliable. Egypt, which supplies gas to the Greek port of Alexandroupolis—the landing point for gas destined for Ukraine—is experiencing domestic shortages, rising demand and dwindling production. In fact, it has become a net gas importer.
Second, Ukraine’s domestic gas production is essential for the country’s energy security and economic resilience. But even with EU financial assistance, securing foreign supplies comes with a hefty price tag; excessive reliance on imports is a vulnerability, especially in wartime. It is therefore a strategic imperative for Kyiv to protect its gas fields against Russian attacks.
Solution
Ukraine’s ability to fight Russia effectively depends on the wellbeing of its citizens. This, in turn, depends on Ukraine using the European network of pipelines and terminals for its gas imports.
Deals like the one concluded on November 16th in Athens are what Ukraine needs: European countries should now leverage their political and diplomatic capital with gas-producing countries, such as Qatar or Canada, to help Kyiv sign new agreements that will diversify its import sources. Europeans need to pay attention to the exporters’ ability to deliver adequate volumes and to securing at least medium-term contracts—which extend beyond the coming winter.
Additionally, Europeans should increase their contributions to Ukraine’s air defence to effectively protect the country’s gas fields from Russia. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky recently expressed his desire to order 25 Patriot systems from the United States—but European countries should donate their own Patriot missile batteries until deliveries arrive. Ukraine needs to secure a certain level of domestic extraction to maintain its ability to fight Russia.
Context
Vladimir Putin aims to sap the Ukrainians’ will to fight by forcing the country to cut electricity and heating during the difficult winter months.
On November 17th, Zelensky and Greek prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced an agreement to shore up Ukraine’s energy security and supply the country with natural gas imported through Alexandroupolis and transferred to Kyiv via EU pipelines. The deal also boosts Greece’s ambitions of becoming a regional LNG hub, allowing neighbouring countries to eliminate Russian gas in their energy systems.
Following his visit to Athens, Zelensky also met his French counterpart President Emmanuel Macron to discuss cooperation on air defence and agree the purchase of 100 French Rafale fighter jets. If their delivery ends up being in the long-term, however, France has also committed to the short-term provision of drones and interceptors to help Ukraine’s air defences.
About the Author:
Alberto Rizzi is a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He works mainly in geoeconomics, with his research interests focusing on European economic policies, international trade, and the geopolitics of energy and infrastructure. He also covers the European Union’s economic engagement with developing countries and connectivity initiatives