Summary
- Germany’s federal election in February shattered political precedent: a far-right party, the Alternative for Germany, surged into second place for the first time in the federal republic’s history and a newly elected chancellor broke a longstanding taboo by signalling a willingness to cooperate with them.
- These developments reflect a broader shift. Younger conservatives are more likely to embrace hardline policies and far-right parties; their opinions are less influenced by Germany’s post-war legacy and the Holocaust. This is pushing the new government towards more nationalistic domestic policies and a more assertive foreign policy.
- An increasingly self-assured Germany, driven by more conservative debates, may form coalitions with right-wing northern and central European countries, bypassing lengthy negotiations at the EU level.
- The consequence may be a two-speed EU, with one bloc led by Germany and the other by France and Italy. Yet European leaders need not fear this. Member countries have been on two speeds before, and it worked to the EU’s advantage; with one group becoming the trailblazers and the rest joining once they had caught up.
- European policymakers should embrace the new German dynamism and brace for the associated friction—that way, they can turn Germany’s leadership into a catalyst for deeper, more effective integration across the continent.
About the Author
Timo Lochocki was a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.