In short
- The muted response of Hezbollah, Iraqi armed groups, and the Houthis to Israel’s June 2025 assault on Iran reflected their own domestic preoccupations. Each was constrained by political, economic, and security considerations at home, limiting appetite for escalation.
- It was also a conscious decision by Tehran to manage the conflict largely on its own. Iranian leaders believed they could retaliate directly against Israel while avoiding steps that might trigger extensive U.S. involvement in the war.
- By demonstrating the ability to absorb Israeli strikes and respond independently, Iran aimed to turn restraint into a form of strategic signaling. The episode highlighted an emerging modus operandi in the Axis of Resistance that involves deterrence through calibrated action and controlled inaction, rather than automatic multi-front escalation.
About the Authors
Renad Mansour is a Senior Research Fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Programme and Director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House
Hamidreza Azizi is an Associate at Clingendael.