Something is amiss in the transatlantic world. Every week since January 2025, it seems, new ruptures sunder the ties that once bound American and European allies so closely together.
Every new upset leaves European policymakers dismayed, confused, and stunned. The present confusion about the recent U-turn in American foreign policy centres on one single question – or rather, a desperate exclamation: Why? Why would the United States put the existing European security architecture in jeopardy with such reckless abandon?’
It is still too early to tell which drivers prevail in the policymaking of Trump-II. Washington’s foreign policy decisions so far follow the “duck/ rabbit” illusion pattern, in which the same image can be seen to represent radically different figures. Either Washington’s decisions are seen as instances of Trump’s zero-sum economic logic, or as omens of grander, ideologically driven ambitions. Tariffs, for example, can be viewed as a strictly economic instrument to get a “fairer deal” for the United States, or as the first phase in a destructive confrontation with America’s perceived enemies. Likewise, Trump-II’s shift on European security can be interpreted as a strategy of conservation, saving American dollars for issues the electorate cares more about, or as a dark announcement of geopolitical realignment. The same basic uncertainty applies to the rest of Trump-II’s behaviour on the world stage. Will the administration bend before the stock market, or the other way round?
“The economy is the last guardrail we have.” That is how a colleague from the Bertelsmann Foundation expressed his hope, in a private video call, that the market would deter the Republican Party from attempting a domestic coup d’état. The same is true for Trump-II’s policy towards the EU. But what if even this economic guardrail crumbles? What coup or revolution in foreign policy can the EU expect from Washington if economic concerns turn out to be subordinated to ideological ones? Should the risk of economic fallout not deter Trump-II, where does the movement behind Trump’s success, Make America Great Again (MAGA), stand on Brussels?
About the Author
Liam Klein is a Research Fellow at the Strategic Foresight Programme, having joined the Clingendael Institute in June 2024.