Since the end of the first Israeli occupation in 1978, the UN Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) have been involved in trying to prevent further escalations and stabilise the country (UN Interim Forces in Lebanon [UNIFIL], 2026c). However, after 48 years of presence, UNIFIL’s mandate will not be renewed and will terminate at the end of 2026 (United Nations Security Council, 2025). The planned withdrawal, scheduled for 2027, will create a security vacuum in the country amid unprecedented regional turmoil. This scenario could further destabilise Lebanon’s already fragile civil and military institutions due to decades of deep economic crisis and long-standing conflicts within the Levant (Malmvig, 2025; Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2026).
However, this report argues that UNIFIL’s withdrawal opens a window of opportunity for the European Union (EU) to make a positive contribution to Lebanon’s stability. European land forces could shift from a UN framework to a more autonomous approach to Lebanon’s instability and related threats. Due to migration pressure, active conflicts, terrorism, and political and economic fragility, the Levant became a key region for the EU, with Lebanon occupying a central position (Nader, 2020, p.2). Although it cannot replace UNIFIL, the EU should find a feasible path to mitigate the risks stemming from the post-withdrawal period, scaling up its coordination with Lebanese institutions, primarily the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and its diplomatic engagement in political negotiations to disarm Hezbollah . The challenges ahead are exceptional, but the risk of state collapse poses a direct threat to European security on its southern flank, ranging from a renewed humanitarian and refugee crisis to new terrorist threats (Nader, 2020, p.6).1
The following research analyses the current EU military involvement in Lebanon. It explores the opportunities and challenges of the post-UNIFIL scenario, focusing on the country’s current political context and the strategic importance of Lebanese statehood. Moreover, it outlines the EU’s involvement in LAF’s support. It suggests how the EU and European countries should approach Lebanese instability to advance European security in the Eastern Mediterranean.
About the author
Giulio Rimondo is a defence and security research intern at Finabel.