Opinion & Analysis

Towards an EU ‘defence union’?

Europeans need to bolster their security. Even if the conflict in Ukraine were to end soon, the threat to European security from Russia would remain. Europe’s southern neighbourhood is a source of threats, both from state and non-state actors. And in Donald Trump’s second term, America is likely to devote fewer resources to defending its European allies – even if Trump’s transactional rhetoric towards Europe suggests it is unlikely to abandon them entirely.

Advancing European defence co-operation is a priority for Ursula von der Leyen in her second term as Commission president. She often talks of establishing a ‘defence union’, and has entrusted the task of advancing the project to the EU’s first dedicated defence commissioner, former Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius. Kubilius, together with the new High Representative, former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, is preparing a ‘white paper’ on European defence, due in mid-March. The aim of the paper is “to frame a new approach to defence and identify investment needs to deliver full spectrum defence capabilities based on joint investments, readying the EU and member-states for the most extreme military contingencies”.1 The white paper will follow three other recent EU reports that referred extensively to the EU’s role in defence: those of former Italian prime ministers Mario Draghi (on competitiveness) and Enrico Letta (on the single market), and that of former Finnish president Sauli Niinistö on preparedness and readiness. The three reports all highlighted the fragmented nature of Europe’s defence industry and called for Europeans to strengthen their defence capabilities.

The EU has the potential to play a substantial role in building up Europe’s defences. The Union has emerged as a significant defence actor in recent years, with tools such as the European Defence Fund (EDF) that foster more joint research and development. In theory, the Union could emerge as a facilitator of Europe’s efforts to strengthen its defences. However, that outcome is by no means guaranteed, as significant obstacles may keep the EU’s role in defence more circumscribed even as co-operation between European countries deepens bilaterally or in small groups. This paper starts by mapping out Europe’s defence challenge and the current state of its efforts to become more self-reliant. It then looks at the EU’s different initiatives in defence and their prospects. Finally, it makes recommendations for how the EU can maximise the impact of its efforts.

About the Author

Luigi Scazzieri is a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform.

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