Summary
- ECFR polling reveals the gloom that has fallen over European perceptions of the transatlantic relationship since early November.
- Respondents are more likely to call the US merely a “necessary partner” rather than an “ally”.
- But views of Donald Trump’s return vary markedly according to country and political outlook.
- That, and intra-European differences on both Russia-Ukraine and China, create ample opportunities for Trump to split Europeans.
- Building a broad coalition of “Euro-optimists” along with more cautious groups can help European leaders resist any such attempts—and even forge a new dawn in transatlantic relations.
Lamps going out
On the evening of August 3rd 1914, a friend visited the British foreign secretary Sir Edward Grey in his office in London. They gazed out of the windows at the dusk street as the lamplighters moved along it. “The lamps are going out all over Europe,” commented Grey, as he later observed in his memoirs. “We shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.”
To draw comparisons between now and then might seem absurdly catastrophist. After all, Grey was referring to the imminent outbreak of the first world war. And yet that melancholic image captures something of the transatlantic alliance today as Donald Trump settles in for a second presidential term. Where once it burned bright, now it is dimming. The shadows are lengthening. Gloom is setting in—for how long is not yet clear.
That, at least, is the mood captured by ECFR’s sweeping poll of Europeans conducted in November (after the US presidential election) and December 2024. It covered 11 EU member states and Switzerland, the UK and Ukraine—as well as ten other countries around the world as part of a wider exercise already covered in a separate ECFR report. Across those 14 European states, the poll found a newly pessimistic and transactional view of the transatlantic partnership.
The growing shadows do not fall evenly. In some parts of the continent and its politics—especially its populist right, in power in states like Hungary—affection for the US burns on. Even elsewhere, as it fades, more moderate leaders like Emmanuel Macron in France and Friedrich Merz, Germany’s likely next chancellor, rage against the dying of the light. They hope to use their personal ingenuity or charisma to keep the transatlantic flame burning. But as they do so, they should heed the twilight scene that our polling paints, constituted by four main findings.
Firstly, Europeans see the US less as an ally sharing the same interests and values, and more as a necessary partner with whom they must strategically cooperate. They are broadly aligned on this, but the poll also finds evidence that respondents of different political outlooks view Trump quite differently. That could point to divisions on the sort of transatlantic relationship that they would like to see in future.
Secondly, Europeans are largely united in expecting Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations, a significant shift over the second half of 2024. But here too, the pattern of light and shade is uneven. Views on what those negotiations should entail and what approach to the theatre Europe should adopt in the long term vary greatly, in ways European leaders must heed if Trump increases the pressure for talks.
Thirdly, a similar picture of division is already visible on China policy. Views among Europeans vary significantly and do not correlate neatly with views on America or Trump. That gives the US administration room to exploit differences.
Finally, Europeans tend to see the EU in a gloomier light than most counterparts elsewhere in the world. But few believe that darkness has fallen entirely. Between the groups most optimistic and pessimistic about the union’s prospects and power are two other camps that recognise shades of grey. As the glow of the transatlantic alliance fades, leaders can turn to those groups for support as they seek to illuminate Europe’s own path.
Twilight is usually understood as the period just after the sunset, when the light is fading. Technically speaking, however, it corresponds to any time of day when the sun is just below the horizon. Thus it can also refer to the dawn: the moment before a new day. That very ambiguity well describes current relations between Europe and America. The old Atlanticism is disappearing. But a new one will need to be born—either soon, or after a long night.
For leaders favourable to European interests and cooperation, this marks an opportunity to set transatlantic relations on a new footing. It is a chance to make Europe a more autonomous, flexible and, ultimately, more secure and self-confident partner. But if Europeans allow Trump to transfix and divide them, they will cede the task of lighting a way forward to a new, nationalist, MAGA-style transatlantic project already emerging, confident, from the shadows.
An unsentimental Atlanticism
ECFR’s poll shows Europeans converging in their perceptions of the US. The most common view is that the US is not an “ally” but rather a “necessary partner” with which Europeans must strategically cooperate. This is even true in traditional Atlanticist strongholds—like Poland and Denmark—that one-and-a half years earlier saw the US primarily as an ally. Though our polling cannot confirm causality, we contend that Trump’s political return and ultimate election victory may be the main contributing factor.
About the author:
Jana Puglierin is a senior policy fellow at ECFR and head of its Berlin office.
Arturo Varvelli is a senior policy fellow at ECFR and head of its Rome office.
Pawel Zerka is a senior policy fellow at ECFR and based in its Paris office.