Five weeks after the United States and Israel began their unilateral bombardment of Iran, the conflict is already reshaping Europe’s external environment. Iran’s blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for around 20% of global oil flows, is driving up energy prices and tightening fertilizer markets worldwide.
In this episode of Europolis: The Global Europe Podcast, Chloé Teevan speaks with ECDPM colleagues Sophie Desmidt, Alfonso Medinilla and Koen Dekeyser about what the war reveals for Europe’s security, energy and food systems, and its partnerships with countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
Europe’s security and diplomatic dilemma
The war highlights how quickly conflicts beyond Europe’s borders can test both international law and EU unity. Desmidt argues that Europe’s challenge is not a choice between interests and principles: pushing for de‑escalation, freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and respect for international law is also about protecting Europe’s own security and economic interests.
On paper, EU positions are closest to “middle powers” like Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada that prioritise stability and open sea lanes. In the Gulf and across Africa, however, responses are more fragmented, with governments divided over how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and how to respond to rising energy and fertilizer prices
Energy and fertilizers under pressure
For Medinilla, the crisis confirms that Europe remains trapped in fossil fuel dependency despite the lessons of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. With Qatari LNG infrastructure damaged and Gulf flows constrained, the EU has become even more reliant on US LNG and a small group of suppliers, increasing vulnerability to price spikes and geopolitical pressure. He argues that Europe cannot keep “replacing one insecure dependency with another” and must accelerate electrification and renewables instead.
Dekeyser stresses that fertilizer disruptions are just as worrying as energy shocks. Iran is among the top exporters of urea, and Qatar hosts the world’s largest urea plant; constraints on their exports are rippling through key importers from India and Brazil to Eastern and Southern Africa and Europe. Rising gas prices squeeze European producers and farmers, while many African countries lack the buffers to absorb yet another fertilizer price spike.
Diversification, not withdrawal
The conversation points to a broader political wake‑up call: it is becoming “way riskier to continue to bet on the transatlantic partnership” alone than to invest in more diverse alliances on technology, energy, food and security. Europe should deepen cooperation with African, Asian and Latin American partners that share an interest in more resilient and rules‑based systems – without turning inward or abandoning the US, but reducing over‑reliance on any single partner.
About the podcast series
Faced with geopolitical and economic turbulence, Europe needs new and better partners to secure its prosperity. Europolis: the global Europe podcast looks at how new dynamics are reshaping relations between the EU and the wider world and how Europe might navigate this new terrain.
Join us as we break down EU policy through insightful conversations with leading policymakers, industry leaders and experts. Discover how the EU could drive innovation, competitiveness, and progress in the global arena, and understand how policymakers are thinking about shaping our sovereign future.
About the Authors:
Chloe Teevan is the head of ECDPM’s digital economy and governance team
Sophie Desmidt is the associate director of ECDPM’s people, partnerships and peace cluster and head of the peace, security and resilience workstream. She is also a member of the management team
Alfonso Medinilla is the head of ECDPM’s climate action and green transition team. He focuses on the geopolitics of the global green transition and renewable energy
Dr Koen Dekeyser is a policy analyst in ECDPM’s sustainable food systems and climate action and green transition teams
Jonathan Hunter is a communications officer in ECDPM’s outreach and impact department. He is responsible for ECDPM’s multimedia output and social media channels