Developments in the United States and its foreign policy under President Trump are so radical and fast-moving that many European capitals, including Berlin, are having to contemplate operating without or even against the United States in key areas of international politics. There is also discussion about what can only be achieved with the United States for the time being. A new era of transatlantic relations has dawned for Europe and Germany:
Europe can no longer rely on its alliance and partnership with the United States. Whoever succeeds Trump II, there will be no going back to a transatlantic partnership led by a benevolent US hegemon. Even if the next US presidential elections might create breathing space, the pendulum could still swing back again four years later.
Europe must therefore significantly reduce its dependence on the United States, and ideally eliminate it in key areas. This would mean fulfilling the promise of European sovereignty in terms of strategic capability, decision-making autonomy and freedom of action.
This cannot be achieved overnight, and will require a significant increase in resources over the next five to ten years. During this transition period, Europe will find itself in a weaker negotiating position vis-à-vis the United States. This applies above all to security and will require concessions in other policy areas.
Depending on the policy area or challenge, the United States may appear as a rival, competitor or partner – corresponding the strategy options of operating against, without or with Washington.
This study analyses fourteen areas of action relevant to German and European policy. Although the contributions were largely written before publication of the American National Security Strategy, the latter’s core provisions align with the observations outlined above. The study was prepared before the combined US-Israeli war against Iran began. In the first part, Europe on its own, we examine (1) whether the existential crisis in transatlantic relations can be overcome through adaptation or transformation, or whether a break is inevitable, (2) what a Europeanisation of NATO might look like, (3) how new leadership constellations can be formed in Europe, and (4) what Europe’s options for action are in view of its technological dependencies on the United States. The second part, War and Peace, is devoted to Europe’s options for action with, without or against the United States: in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, in Middle East policy, in the reshaping of China policy and, at a more fundamental level, in peace promotion, humanitarian aid and development cooperation. The analyses in the third part deal with the relationship between Europe and the United States in key areas of action. They address the future of multilateralism and international law, the renewal of the EU’s soft power, especially vis-à-vis the countries of the Global South, new ideas for European trade policy, and ways to advance climate and energy policy. The fourth part draws conclusions on how Europe can escape its dangerous dependence on the United States.
About the Authors:
Dr Stefan Mair is the executive board director at German Institute for International and Security Affairs and focuses on foreign and security policy challenges of Germany and the EU; Geopolitical and geoeconomic dynamics; and trade and foreign economic policy.
Barbara Lippert is the director of research at German Institute for International and Security Affairs and focuses on European Enlargement Policy and its implications for the political system and the policies of the European Union as well as Germany’s approach to European Affairs.